Vulnerability to Intrastate Conflict by Barry B. Hughes, Jonathan D. Moyer, Timothy D. Sis - HTML preview

ABOUT THE INSTITUTE The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by Congress. Its goals are to help prevent and resolve violent conflicts, promote postconflict peacebuilding, and increase conflict management tools, capacity, and intellectual capital worldwide. The Institute does this by empowering others with knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by its direct involvement in conflict zones around the globe.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

J. Robinson West (Chair), Chairman, PFC Energy, Washington, DC • George E. Moose (Vice Chairman), Adjunct Professor of Practice, The George Washington University, Washington, DC • Judy Ansley, Former Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor under George W. Bush, Washington, DC • Anne H. Cahn, Former Scholar in Residence, American University, Washington, DC • Chester A. Crocker, James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington, DC • Kerry Kennedy, President, Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human Rights, Washington, DC • Ikram U. Khan, President, Quality Care Consultants, LLC., Las Vegas, NV • Stephen D. Krasner, Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations at Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA • John A. Lancaster, Former Executive Director, International Council on Independent Living, Potsdam, NY • Jeremy A. Rabkin, Professor of Law, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA • Judy Van Rest, Executive Vice President, International Republican Institute, Washington, DC • Nancy Zirkin, Executive Vice President, Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, Washington, DC

MEMBERS EX OFFICIO

Michael H. Posner, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor • James N. Miller, Principle Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy • Ann E. Rondeau, Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy; President, National Defense University • Richard H. Solomon, President, United States Institute of Peace (nonvoting)

PEACEWORKS • JUNE 2011 • NO. 72

As many as one-quarter to one-half of the countries in the world are, to varying extents, vulnerable to armed domestic conflict. This poses, as is widely recognized, an immediate and ongoing threat to international peace and security. Quantitative studies track the frequency of armed conflict, its intensity, patterns of termination, and consequences. The ultimate goal is to better understand-and thus better anticipate or avoid-such conflict. The authors of this report pursue the answer to a question not well addressed in the field: How do the principal quantitative measures of conflict vulnerability compare to one another?

Related Links

• . Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability by Jack A. Goldstone (Special Report, March 2008)
• . Preventing Violent Conflict: Assessing Progress, Meeting Challenges by Lawrence Woocher (Special Report, September 2009)
• . Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World edited by Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall (2007)
• . Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political Violence Through 2011 Schwartz (Special Report, August 2009) by Alan
• . The Limits of Institutional Engineering: Lessons from Iraq by David Waldner (Special Report, May 2009)

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