Letter to Canadian Foreign Minister Joly (March 2024)

<via email to Melanie.Joly@parl.gc.ca>

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March 13, 2025

Canada's Preparedness to Fend Off Economic and Political Pressures From an Antagonistic U.S. Administration

The Honourable Minister Mélanie Joly, P.C., M.P. M

Minister of Foreign Affairs

House of Commons

Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A6

Dear Minister Joly:

The other day I read a piece by the CBC journalist, Evan Dyer, entitled 'The U.S. has covertly destabilized nations. With Canada, it's being done in public.' I agree with the sentiment that it is important for our governments (federal, provincial/territorial and municipal) to begin to think differently about our relationship with the U.S. While at this point, I can't imagine a direct military attack on Canada, I do believe that we could be watching the beginning of a long-term campaign to draw Canada much closer than most of us on this side of the border would like, i.e., a relationship that would compromise Canadian sovereignty. On its face, talk of annexation seems preposterous. It wouldn't be an easy thing to do, and there would be more political battles than America has to this point planned for. One joke runs thusly, 'If the U.S. annexes Canada, there won't be a Republican president for generations.'

The reason I'm writing is to introduce an article I read in Foreign Affairs today. In the article, the authors suggest how the U.S. can assist Taiwan in preparing its 'gray-zone' defenses against aggressive Chinese behaviour. As I was reading it, the irony was too great to miss. This could be advice being given to Canada to prepare itself against U.S. threats, farfetched as this may sound given what has been one of the strongest bilateral alliances in the world.

It's highly unlikely that we'll see brigades of soldiers, tanks, aircraft and missiles heading our way. However, there are different ways to wage war, and President Trump has made that clear . . . and the history of U.S. foreign policy offers numerous examples. There appears to be no good reason why a long-standing ally of Canada should have declared this trade war on Canada in the first place. But one thing should be very clear: the U.S. government cannot enjoy the trust of Canadians and the Canadian government. This may not be a passing moment. More than 70 million Americans voted for Trump in the past two presidential elections. That's frightening. To much of the world, it seems a significant part of the U.S. electorate has gone insane, at least if we define political insanity as the willingness to sacrifice democratic norms in support of an autocratic agenda. We may be in a 'disturbed' relationship with the U.S. for some time.

What the article below points to are preventative measures that can be taken to ward off what the authors label gray-area attacks. Here's the opening paragraph which serves as a very brief abstract. Substitute 'Canada' for 'Taiwan' and 'U.S.' for 'China.'
 

Although Taiwanese . . . defense planners are right to prepare for a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan, the more immediate risk is that China would try to use gray-zone tactics, including sabotage and subversion, to destroy Taiwan’s will and power to resist. China might systematically sabotage water facilities, flood the island with propaganda, use cyberattacks to take down the electric grid, orchestrate “accidental” disruptions of the Internet by cutting undersea fiber-optic cables, and provide aid to Taiwanese opposition figures and movements. Beijing’s short-term aim would be to wipe out, without firing a single shot, Taipei’s ability to mobilize the public against Chinese coercion and aggression. *

While I'm aware that I'm not sharing any expert or unique advice, I feel it's as important to share my views this way as it is to cast my single vote.

Regards,

Peter McMillan

*'How to Toughen Up Taiwan: America Must Help the Island Deal With China’s Gray-Zone Tactics, in Foreign Affairs, by Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones, March 13, 2025.