Adding Up the Numbers:
Best vs Worst Presidents and Historians' Rankings
* For all the gravity with which the presidency is written about, assessments of presidents are often at least partly based on ridiculous fluff more suitable for Hollywood than Washington. Among the criteria that presidential rankings use are leadership, accomplishments, political skill, and character. Every one of those but accomplishments are extremely vague to the point where no two people could agree on a definition. All of these assessment qualities except character are pointedly amoral. Technically, Foreign Minister Von Ribbentrop of the Third Reich was quite adept at political skill. For such amoral use of skill, he was rightly hanged at Nuremburg. There were skilled American officials, and even presidents, who committed similar crimes as Von Ribbentrop and should have faced similar punishments.
* Other criteria used over the years include handling of the economy, communication, ability to compromise, foreign policy accomplishments, intelligence, imagination, family, education, and experience. For all except the economy and foreign policy, these are qualities more suited to middle management at a corporation than president. One looks in vain for heroic qualities, or even moral ones or basic decency.
* For the president is not a CEO. Except for managing subordinates, the business field has some of the worst set of guidelines one could choose for political office. One’s ability to turn a profit for one’s self or a company has nothing to do with running a country. The two better models would be, one, running a charity. Does a president possess the abilities to run an organization designed to rescue people from disaster, poverty, disease, crime, or war?
* The other model one could use should be either unions or civil rights organizations. I can already imagine many conservatives blanching at the thought. But what both outfits share are their ability to work to unite masses of people in a cause, fairer treatment for people of a class, profession, or ethnic group. It is no coincidence that in Europe and Latin America, union organizers are far more often elected than in America, where the US tends to elect businessmen and lawyers. The practices comes from, and results in, a far more unequal society. In fact, civil rights organizers are among the few American congressmen with a history of consistently putting popular concerns above elite ones.
* The first ranking of presidents by historians was done in 1948 by the venerable Arthur Schlesinger. Later surveys came from his son, Arthur Schlesinger Jr,, also quite the revered figure within the profession. Both men’s personas, methods, and writing styles reflect much of the profession’s foibles. Both are or were nominally liberal, but the most timid, middling, and cautious form of liberalism possible. Ideologically, both were or are just barely to the left of center, and in terms of approach are conservative as in very cautious.
* Most rankings of presidents by historians have not gotten much better. The Chicago Tribune, Sienna College, C-Span, the Wall Street Journal, the Federalist Society, Newsweek, and History News Network have all done surveys of presidential historians with fairly consistent results. At the top are the names one would expect, Washington, Lincoln, and both Roosevelts. At the second tier one finds in almost all surveys Truman, Eisenhower, Wilson, and Reagan, usually followed by Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson.
* The two dramatic exceptions to these results, not surprisingly, are the Wall Street Journal and Federalist Society. As one would expect from institutions speaking solely for financial elites or their disciples, they gave higher ratings to Reagan and even GW Bush. Their most ludicrous result was GW Bush rated as the sixth greatest president of all time.
* Public opinion surveys are not far different from historians. The reasoning, though, is likely different. Washington will always be near the top of the rankings, despite most Americans being unable to tell you anything he did as president beyond being the first one. Public opinions of presidents are largely recognition tests, the most famous ones plus the most recent.
* For my own rankings, I am hesitant to simply rank by the greatest number of deaths and thus place a great deal of weight based on intent. Simply adding up deaths has the danger to turn any study into a simple minded obscene beauty contest in reverse. Nixon and Jackson both were parties to genocide, but Nixon's victims numbered many times more. But if your relative or ancestor was one of the victims, the trauma is no less.
* Obviously malice matters more than neglect, and neglect in turn more than incompetence. Intent matters above all. Even more difficult is weighing a president guilty of horrific crimes, yet sometimes doing good. There is a separate category for such men.
* Compare the best presidents as routinely ranked by presidential scholars: Washington, Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, Teddy Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Wilson, Reagan, Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson. Sometimes Jackson and Polk make the top ten.
* The worst ranked by scholars' polls, with worst at the start: Harding, Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Pierce, GW Bush, Fillmore, Grant, Taylor, Harrison, and Tyler.
* Looking at the rankings in this book, clearly the worst have to be expanded to twelve. Numbers are only part of the reason for the rankings. Genocide definitely means one should be ranked among the very worst. This is followed by; making genocide possible or ignoring genocide; atomic, biological, or chemical warfare; partial responsibility for mass deaths; and finally deaths by incompetence or ideological blindness. Not having mitigating factors of humanitarian accomplishments also affects rankings. Uncertain factors are also listed.
The Worst President in US History: Richard Nixon
Deaths directly caused by him: 512,000 to 612,000.
Direct responsibility for 500,000 to 600,000 in the US-directed Cambodian genocide, partial responsibility for 1 million to 1.75 million deaths by the Khmer Rouge genocide.
Direct responsibility for at least 10,000 deaths by torture in the Phoenix Program.
Direct responsibility for over 2,000 deaths in the overthrow of the Chilean government.
Chemical warfare, perhaps 200,000 deaths by Agent Orange and hundreds of thousands of deaths by napalm in the US-Vietnam War.
Partial responsibility for 1.86 million to 4.72 million.
500,000 to 1.5 million deaths by ideological blindness or incompetence.
Partial responsibility for 300,000 to 3 million deaths ignored in the Bengali genocide.
3,000 Kurds killed by betrayal, creating conditions for 100,000 deaths by Hussein's genocide.
Partial responsibility for 30,000 to 60,000 deaths in Operation Condor.
500,000-1.5 million deaths by incompetence and ideological blindness in the US-Vietnam War.
Pardoning mass murderer Lt. Calley.
Mitigated by: Disarmament treaties with the USSR.
Biological and chemical weapons ban.
Trade with China leading to a somewhat less repressive Communist state.
Continuing and expanding civil rights and anti-poverty programs begun by Lyndon Johnson.
Uncertain factors: Some evidence points toward biological warfare against Cuba in the 1970s, which would have begun during Nixon's time in office. One epidemic killed over 100 Cuban children, another wiped out most pigs on the island. But Nixon's role is unknown, and the evidence is highly disputed.
The Second Worst President in US History: Ronald Reagan
Total deaths directly caused by him: 325,000.
325,000 deaths by genocide in Guatemala, US sponsored Contra terrorism in Nicaragua, support for repression in El Salvador and Honduras, bombing El Salvador, and invasion of Grenada.
Chemical warfare, Plan Colombia spraying of herbicide glyphosate, caused unknown number of Colombian and Ecuadoran deaths
Partial responsibility for unknown number of other deaths.
Unknown number of deaths by ideological blindness and incompetence on the Cold War.
Unknown number of deaths by ideological blindness on deregulation and drug wars.
Selling biological and chemical weapons material to Saddam Hussein.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
Uncertain factors: Reagan suffered from Alzheimer's his last two years in office. How much he understood or even remembered what was done in that time is unknown.
The Third Worst President in US History: Andrew Jackson
Total deaths directly caused by him: 12,500-20,500.
12,500-16,500 deaths by genocide against the Five Tribes. Perhaps 4,000 Black slaves also died.
Slave trader, warfare against the Creeks as general and threatened invasion of Florida.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
The Fourth Worst President in US History: James Buchanan
Partial responsibility for 620,00-800,000 deaths.
120,000-300,000 deaths ignored in the California Indian genocide.
500,000 deaths by incompetence and ideological blindness worsening the Civil War.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
The Fifth Worst President in US History: James Polk
Partial responsibility for 139,000-319,000 deaths.
120,000-300,000 deaths by making California Indian genocide possible.
19,000 deaths by provoking the US-Mexico War including at least 1,000 civilian atrocities.
Starting the US-Mexico War expanded slavery and partly contributed to the eventual Civil War.
Slave trader.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
The Sixth Worst President in US History: Millard Fillmore
Partial responsibility for 120,000-300,000 deaths.
120,000-300,000 deaths ignored in the California Indian genocide.
Being a presidential candidate for Know Nothing terrorists.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
The Seventh Worst President in US History: Bill Clinton
Partial responsibility for over 300,000 to 600,000 deaths.
800,000 deaths ignored in the Rwandan genocide. Likely three quarters of the deaths could have been prevented. Even Clinton admits 300,000 could have been saved.
Unknown number caused by ideological blindness on deregulation, leading to Great Recession.
Incompetence in Somalia invasion leading to 2,000 deaths.
Incompetence leading to the deaths of 80 Branch Davidians.
Incompetence leading to greater number of deaths by right wing terrorism in US.
Mitigated by: Delayed North Korean development of the A-bomb by almost a decade.
Partial credit for intervention, though late and not effective at first, to stop atrocities in Bosnia.
Partial credit for the peace process ending terrorism in Northern Ireland.
Though the number of deaths Clinton ignored or caused by incompetence is more than double that of Polk or Fillmore, they did nothing good to mitigate their records.
The Eighth Worst President in US History: Gerald Ford
Partial responsibility for 20,000 deaths or more.
200,000 deaths ignored in genocide in East Timor. Diplomatic intervention, arms embargo, and offering refuge could have saved at least one tenth.
Continuing Operation Condor begun by Nixon. Unlike Nixon we have no evidence of his direct approval, only his administration's, and his own failure to stop it.
Some would argue his pardon of Nixon adds to his poor record. But this is true for humanitarian reasons only if Nixon had been facing charges for Cambodia. Congress dropped those charges.
Mitigated by: Continuing arms control agreements begun by Nixon.
The Ninth Worst President in US History: Harry Truman
Direct responsibility for hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Atomic warfare targeting Japanese civilians with A-bombs killed at least 200,000 and did not end the war nor intimidate the Soviets as intended.
Chemical warfare, an unknown but likely quite high number of Chinese and North Korean deaths by napalm in the Korean War.
Targeting civilians during World War II killed 800,000. Truman shares this responsibility with Franklin Roosevelt and Churchill.
Atomic bomb testing on Pacific Islanders.
Deaths partly caused by incompetence and ideological blindness: Up to 7 million.
Unknown number by incompetence and ideological blindness leading to the Cold War. The highest estimate for the Cold War is 7 million deaths. Truman did largely start the Cold War, but clearly did not continue it for most of its 40 plus years. His responsibility is shared with many.
Mitigated by: Civil rights accomplishments included desegregating the federal government, the US military, and defense contracting companies. Recognizing and aiding Israel.
The Tenth Worst President in US History: William McKinley
Deaths caused by war of aggression: 200,000 to over 1 million.
200,000 to over 1 million deaths by war of aggression against Filipinos, failure to stop atrocities.
Conquest of Guam, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Samoa as part of American empire.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
The Eleventh Worst President in US History: GW Bush
Direct responsibility for 108 deaths by torture.
Chemical warfare, greatly expanding the use of the herbicide glyphosate in Plan Colombia, likely killing an unknown number of Colombians and Ecuadorans.
Deaths caused by ideological blindness and incompetence: Over 100,000 to over 1 million.
100,000 to over 1 million deaths by incompetence and ideological blindness in the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.
1800-3000 deaths in Hurricane Katrina. Likely more than nine tenths were preventable.
Unknown number of deaths by ideological blindness on deregulation causing Great Recession.
Blocking chemical warfare treaty and nuclear free zone in the Mideast.
Mitigated by: Actions on AIDS in Africa saving or preventing the deaths of an unknown number, estimates from 200,000 to 5 million. These actions are themselves mitigated by the program's neglect of aid to gays, sex workers, and intravenous drug users.
The Twelfth Worst President in US History: Andrew Johnson
Deaths caused by incompetence and ideological blindness: Up to 50,000.
Blocked law enforcement against most of 50,000 murders by racist terrorists during Reconstruction. Pardoned Confederate traitors, who carried out the terrorism.
Unknown number of deaths by increased poverty and discrimination.
The Long Walk, forced removal of the Navajo, almost entirely happened under Johnson.
Mitigated by: Nothing, no humanitarian accomplishments.
Dishonorable Mentions for Other Presidents:
Teddy Roosevelt-Over 5,000 deaths building the Panama Canal.
Invasions of multiple Latin American nations.
Forced Americanization program against Puerto Ricans.
Woodrow Wilson-Chemical warfare, use of mustard and phosgene gas in World War I.
Deaths from internment of German-Americans and dissidents.
Invasions of multiple Latin American nations.
Forced American citizenship upon Puerto Ricans, against their unanimous opposition.
Dwight Eisenhower- Atomic bomb testing on Pacific Islanders.
Overthrows of elected governments in Latin America and the Mideast.
* The best presidents actually have to be limited to four at most. For all presidents listed as best, the number of lives saved must greatly outweigh any failures that led to preventable deaths.
The Best President in US History: Abraham Lincoln
Total number of lives saved by him: Over 4 million set free, at least 120,000 to likely millions of lives saved.
Emancipation of over 4,000,000 Black slaves and 30,000 American Indian slaves.
Slaves had a child mortality rate double that of free people. Slavery likely would continue 15-25 more years without the Civil War. Ending slavery saved an unknown number of Black children.
Defeating the Confederacy prevented wars of aggression against the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Spain, as well as future wars against the US, saving at least 120,000 lives.
First treaty banning chemical warfare.
Pardons in the Dakota War prevented 263 Dakota deaths.
Mitigated by: 38 Dakota who were still executed and should at least have been fairly tried.
Failing to stop the start of the Long Walk against the Navajos.
Choosing Andrew Johnson as Vice President.
The Second Best President in US History: Van Buren
Total number of lives saved by him: 174,000 to 354,000.
Delaying the genocide of California Indians, 120,000 to 300,000 lives saved.
Avoiding war with Britain. The War of 1812 cost 19,000 deaths.
Avoiding war with Mexico: The US-Mexico War killed 35,000.
Mitigated by: Carrying out the Trail of Tears, the forced removal of the Cherokee planned and put into place by Jackson and narrowly passed by Congress.
Continuing war of aggression against the Seminole, begun before Van Buren and continuing after him.
The Third Best President in US History: Jimmy Carter
Total number of lives saved by him: At least 50,000, likely over 150,000. Perhaps another 205,000 refugees rescued from Communism.
The Camp Davis Accords may have saved as many as 100,000 lives from future Mideast wars.
His human rights policy directly saved at least 50,000 dissidents worldwide and helped end dictatorships in 25 countries, thus also preventing future deaths from repression as well.
The policy also contributed to ending the Cold War sooner, saving dissidents under Communism and liberating future generations.
125,000 Cubans and perhaps 80,000 Soviet Jews rescued from Communism.
Continuing arms control agreements begun by Nixon.
Mitigated by: Not applying human rights policies to Cambodia, or Indonesia in East Timor.
Funding and arming Mujahadeen in Afghanistan, some of whom later became Al Qaeda.
The Fourth Best President in US History: Ulysses Grant
Total number of lives saved by him: Likely in the tens of thousands.
His Peace Policy reduced the number of battles between the US Army and Natives by greater than four fifths and ended extermination of Natives as a practice by the US government.
His efforts during Reconstruction largely ended KKK violence in Georgia and South Carolina.
Mitigated by: Not continuing to defend Blacks during Reconstruction.
Continuing to pardon Confederate traitors.
* Those with a mixed legacy, both saving and causing many deaths, can only be grouped chronologically and not ranked. The biggest reason otherwise good presidents committed great harm was by following the advice of military experts.
Thomas Jefferson
Partial responsibility for 170,000 deaths.
Ignored genocide in Haiti.
Total number of lives saved by him: perhaps up to 238,000.
Banning the US international slave trade may have saved up to 200,000 African lives.
Avoided war with Britain. The War of 1812 killed 19,000.
Avoided war with France. Likely a similar death rate to that of the War of 1812.
Franklin Roosevelt
Direct responsibility for at least hundreds of thousands of deaths,.
More than 65 Japanese-Americans and Aleuts dying during internment.
Targeting German and Japanese civilians in World War II killed at least 800,000. Both Churchill and Truman share responsibility with Roosevelt for this.
Partial responsibility for over 2 million deaths.
Failure to save lives during the Holocaust. Of the 12 million deaths, perhaps one tenth could have been saved by Allied intervention by bombing rail lines or offering refuge.
Repression in Puerto Rico, including massacres, where FDR failed to fire those responsible.
Programs to build atomic, biological, and chemical weapons.
Total number of lives saved by him: Entirely responsible for millions, partly responsible for tens of millions saved.
The New Deal and Social Security saved the lives of millions by greatly limiting poverty.
Partly responsible for defeating fascism in World War II prevented tens of millions of deaths from further genocide and repression, and future wars.
The Good Neighbor Policy saved thousands of lives directly by preventing invasions, indirectly led to greater independence and self sufficiency, likely saving hundreds of thousands.
Lyndon Johnson
Total number of directly deaths caused by him: hundreds of thousands.
Chemical warfare, perhaps 200,000 deaths by Agent Orange and hundreds of thousands of deaths by napalm in the US-Vietnam War.
Torture in the Phoenix Program killed at least 10,000.
Invasion of the Dominican Republic killed at least 2,000.
Deaths caused by incompetence and ideological blindness in the US-Vietnam War: 500,000 to 1.5 million.
Total number of lives saved by him: unknown, at least hundreds of thousands.
The War on Poverty likely saved at least hundreds of thousands by reducing poverty rates and preventing early deaths.
Partly responsible for the most sweeping civil rights laws in history, which saved at least hundreds of thousands of minority lives by opening opportunities and leading to self sufficiency.
George Bush Sr.
Deaths directly caused by him: over 52,000.
Launched war of aggression against Iraq killed over 50,000.
Launched war of aggression against Panama killed 2,000 to 4,000.
Partial responsibility for unknown number of deaths by ideological blindness by deregulation and drug wars.
Pardoning terrorist Orlando Bosch.
Total number of lives saved by him: 100,000 to 700,000.
Rescuing Kurds in Operation Restore Hope I and II. Hussein had already killed 100,000 Kurds. Both operations provided aid to 700,000 Kurds.
Obama
Deaths directly caused by him: 1,800 to 3,200 in program of drone assassinations.
Total number of lives saved by him: Hundreds of thousands at least.
National healthcare system may save as many as 30,000 lives a year. The numbers depend on how much more efforts to sabotage it there are or if the system is replaced by a better one.
Ending the Second Iraq War saved a minimum of 36,000 (UN estimate for war deaths in 2006) to as many as 100,000 Iraqis (Opinion Research Business study estimate) for every additional year of war that another president like McCain or Palin would have done.
Ending the Afghanistan War saved an unknown number. Since there are few accurate figures kept on Afghan civilian deaths, it is hard to know. For both wars, Obama deserves only partial credit for ending, with more credit due to Afghan, Iraqi, and US public opposition.
Ending chemical warfare in Colombia, the spraying of glyphosate designed to eradicate coca, saved an unknown number of Colombian and Ecuadoran lives.
Arms control agreements reducing nuclear weapons by two thirds.
Partly responsible for ending Libyan dictatorship and their biochemical weapons program.
Partly responsible for ending Syrian biochemical weapons program.
Partly ending racist drug sentencing.
* It is quite striking to see how many presidents hailed as supposed our greatest were actually among our worst, and almost as striking to see some of our most disliked among our best in saving lives. That many presidents were both best and worst says much about the power of the office, that neglect, carelessness, or lack of ideological reflection can cause mass deaths to take place. Some supposed great presidents do not make any of these three lists. Washington may be the most overrated president ever, merely a caretaker famous largely for being first.