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Chapter 3.3.3: In Reference Elections 2014, the chances of an Alternative Front Government

(May 2014)

Indian politics is dominated by the careerists, the intrapreneurs and the entrepreneurs (not business entrepreneurs). Ironically, the lawyers are the most prominent amongst the careerists mainly because they are not allowed to practice other professions, and politics being public service, not profession, is the only choice left for the losers — yes, politics is the last choice of the professionals. The most prominent entrepreneurial families in the politics include Nehru/Gandhis (Congress), Yadavs (RJD&SP), Badals (SAD), Pawars (NCP), Thackereys (Shivsena & MNS), Paswans (LJP), Abdullahs (NC), Muftis (PDP), Patnaiks (BJD), Karunanidhis (DMK), Gowdas (JD(S)), Owaisis (AIMIM), Raos (TRS), Chautalas (INLD), Bishnois (HJP), Singhs (RLD) and Reddys (YSRC, the newest entrants). However, there are other parties which, though not family driven, are nevertheless personality driven; the list includes Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, Jayalalitha’s AIADMK, Mayawati’s BSP, Vijaykant’s DMDK, Nitish Kumar’s JD (U), Shibu Soren’s JMM, Babu Lal Marandi’s JVM, Narendra Modi’s BJP and Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP (the newest entrant). Then, there are Marxist/Leftist parties, which are not personality driven but, ironically, are on the verge of extinction. The two big parties, the Congress and the BJP, allow for plenty of opportunities for intrapreneurship. In fact, many entrepreneurs and personalities have emerged out of the Congress: Pawars, Mamta Banerjee, Muftis, Reddys, etc. The BJP offers comparatively lesser opportunities for intrapreneurship because of its more cohesive structure managed by the RSS; nevertheless, Yedyurappa has emerged out of the BJP. Many parties have also emerged out of the less powerful regional parties, for example the TRS and the MNS. Most of the Socialist/Jantadal parties have emerged out of the 1977 Jaiprakash Narain’s political phenomenon. The AAP, the newest experiment in politics, is an amalgamation of activists, intellectuals, professionals, bureaucrats, artists, corporate executives, journalists, and, of course, lawyers; and the common binding factor is cynicism. This group is the most non-cohesive and thus provides the best opportunity for intrapreneurship. Unless there is a miracle on the EVMs, its leader Kejriwal is bound to loose prominence very soon, and then the group will either break up or consolidate itself on the lines of some leftist ideology.

So, one can easily delineate the Indian political scene into six forces: Congress, BJP, Socialists, Marxists/Leftists, Regionalists, and Cynics. However much the Congress and the BJP may project themselves as the only contenders, the fact remains that any of these six forces individually or in combination have the power to form the government. The socialists and the Marxists/leftists have already come together to form an alternative third front. However, a federal front of the regionalists led by Mamata or Jaya or Maya is also a very strong contender to power. Even AAP can’t be written off: There is a certain cynicism in the minds of the urban voters, and it is quite possible that the rural voters of the better developed states of Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra and Gujarat also share the cynicism of the urban voters.

However, the main point is that the coalition politics is all about talks and negotiations, and the mediators play a very big role in these negotiations, very much like the investment bankers do with respect to the corporate. The careerists, the intrapreneurs and the entrepreneurs are always willing to talk and shed their ideological differences for the mutual benefits. I don’t rule out the possibility of the Congress joining hands with the BJP or the SP joining hands with the BSP. The two big parties together will have to get numbers in excess of 300 to preclude the possibility of an alternative front government at the centre — which looks like a bleak possibility to me — else, either of them will have to bend or break to allow the formation of the new government at the centre by an alternative front. ©2014-2015 Ankur Mutreja