it was rather like baccarat, where the house, by virtue of the
rules determining play, had a statistical edge. All players and
students of the game assumed that this advantage existed based
on two simple facts. One, the player had to act first. Two, all
busts (hands totaling over twenty-one) were losers no matter
what the dealer later drew. These two rules seem to give the
house an incontrovertible edge.
Conventional began to change in 1956 when a paper by Baldwin,
Cantey, Maisel, and McDermont was published in the _Journal of
the American Statistical Association_. This paper and a black
jack strategy manual published by Baldwin et al. the following
year both attracted very little interest among non mathemati
cians, but it would prove to be the first step toward determin
ing that blackjack is a "winnable" game.
Edward O. Thorp, a scientist at MIT, did understand the implica
tions of the work of Baldwin and his colleagues and began to ex
amine two elements of the game that were previously unexamined.
One, the composition of a deck of cards changes with every card
dealt. Two, some deck compositions favor the player and other
favor the house. In 1962, Thorp published his now famous book, _Beat the Dealer_, which contained a simple yet profound mes
sage. Unlike dice, roulette wheels, and slot machines, decks of
cards have "memory."
Blackjack, unlike Roulette for example, is a winnable game be
cause of this "memory." Let's look at an example. You are sit
ting at the Roulette table and the dealer throws the ball and it
comes to rest on the number 9. Now, when he throws the ball
again for the next round, what are the odds the ball lands on 9
again? Assuming the wheel is not rigged or the dealer is not
trained to "fix" the outcome, the odds of the ball landing on 9
again are exactly the same! Let's take it a step further. Assume
that the ball does indeed land on 9 again - twice more. Now the
ball has landed on the 9 three times in a row! What are the odds
this happens a fourth time? Exactly the same! There is no sta
tistical reason that the ball should "avoid" landing on 9 again.
Blackjack is different. Let's look at a similar situation in
blackjack. You are at the table with two other players. The
dealer deals a 9 to each of the players at the table. Now the
odds of dealing another 9 have been significantly reduced. In a
six deck game the odds have been reduced from 3:49 to 7:104.
This fact alone makes blackjack a winnable game. We will learn later how to take advantage of this.