We’ve decided to include this section as a way for protecting you when teams with high odds, which are normally good teams that are very likely to win, enter into a losing sequence. This is part of clever money management.
As you know, the odds reversal method we’re using is based on the fact that we have to be right only one in four. For that to work, we have to be able to place wagers up to that fourth game after 3 losses.
In theory, there’s no limit but in practice, we don’t want to end up having to place a $10,000 wager on that fourth game when using a $100 “per win” profit for instance. At any given time, we want to limit the amount of our operating costs in the range of 25 to 35 times our “per win” profit amount. In the case of a $100 “per win” amount, we want to limit the operating costs between $2,500 and $3,500.
It sure doesn’t happen very often if it ever does but this is only some more clever money management.
In some very unusual instances, a good team with a really good record will enter a bad sequence. You want to be careful about those cases which might occur. To keep on using real world business terms, we’ve come up with a way for taking insurance in such cases. Don’t worry, you don’t have to physically take a real insurance, this is a kind of self-insurance we’re talking here.
As opposed to many other gamblers and bettors out there which don’t bother with these cases, you won’t lose much money. You’ll limit those “losses” by managing the situation, staying within the limits of the operating costs you’re normally working with which are accounted for in the Sports Betting Reinvented Formula.
Chances are virtually non-existent for something like that to happen but you want to be covered (have insurance) against that remote possibility.
The Sports Betting Reinvented formula being what it is, we’ve put in place an easy way for preventing that from happening to you and we’ve called it insurance.
It’s very straightforward and it's only used for games #3 and #4. Under no circumstances will you ever place a wager that is more than 10 times your “per win” predetermined profit on game #3 and more than 18 times your "per win" for game #4. This is the insurance rule to infringe at your own risk.
Now, why do we call it insurance?
We’re calling that strategy with the term insurance because it exactly relates at what insurance is; paying a premium in exchange for being protected for something hazardous we can eventually incur. This might not seem obvious to you at the moment but let’s go into some more details and you’ll understand exactly what the meaning is in our case.
Let’s take an example. A good team with high odds on which we had wagers on has lost 2 games in a row. We do our calculations for recouping the inventory plus our “per win” profit using the odds available at our sportsbook and we’re coming up with a wager amount of $1,340 on that third game assuming a $100 “per win” profit.
As mentioned above, the maximum we’ll ever put on a game #3 is 10 times our “per win” amount; in this instance, 10 x $100 = $1,000.
So, had you been in that kind of situation, you would have limited your wager at $1,000 instead of the suggested $1,340. At first, you might think it’s no big deal by wagering less but this is where the insurance concept kicks in.
Let’s break down what this situation could have been:
The wager amount of $1,340 was required for you to recoup the previous amounts temporary lost (inventory) in the first 2 games plus your “per win” profit; $190 (odds at -190 on game #1) + $522 (odds at -180 on game #2) + $100 (per win amount) = $812. With odds at -165 for game #3, the wager amount would be $1,340. If you place a wager of $1,340, you’re getting back your $712 plus your $100 per win amount for a total of $812.
What we’re telling you here is to put a maximum wager of $1,000 (10x your per win) for staying on track with your maximum operating costs of $2,500 to $3,500.
By placing a $1,000 wager on that game and in the eventuality of a win, the amount you’ll be getting from the bookmaker is $1,000 divided by the odds at -165 = $606. You wanted to recoup an amount of $712 plus your $100 per win ($812) and you got $606. You’re then short of $812 - $606 = $206.
This $206 includes your $100 ”per win” profit which is not out of pocket money. The real amount you’re not recouping is then $106, roughly the equivalent of the profit for one win. This is your insurance premium that guarantees you won’t have to place a wager of potentially over $5,000 for the fourth game assuming the worst case scenario where the odds would have remained fairly high. This is exactly like taking home or car insurance and not suffering a loss. Your insurance cost in this case has been $106.
This is in the case the team wins that third game. Let’s have a look at what happens if the team loses. You should have placed a wager of $1,340 but you’ve placed one in the amount of $1,000. The end result for this third game in the case of a loss is that instead of having $1,340 more to recoup on the fourth game is that you have $340 less to recoup.
This is like turning in a claim to the insurance company and getting $340 back for a premium of $106. That’s a pretty good deal right there since you didn’t have to pay that $106 premium because they lost! But, had they won, as we’ve seen above, the cost to you would have been $106.
Here's what happens in the fourth game:
By going blindly and using the numbers that should have been used, the wager amount on the fourth game, with odds at -180 should have been $3,874 ($190 + $522 + $1,340 + $100 = $2,152 with odds at -180 suggesting a wager of $3,874). We know that you’ll never go over $1,800 for that fourth game which is 18 times the “per win” profit of $100. Your potential operating cost (total loss) in the case where you're not using the insurance concept in this case would have been a whopping $5,926.
To do the same calculations as for the third game, using the real amount of game #3 wager of $1,000, we now have $190 + $522 + $1,000 + $100 = $1,812 to recoup including our per win profit. With odds at -180, the amount of the wager should be $3,262. That’s $612 less than what it should have been in the first place without the insurance concept, but still way too high for a fourth game to stay in line with our high end target of around $3,500 for our operating costs.
In this case, you would place a wager of $1,800 which will pay you back $1,000 with odds -180 in the case of a win. You wanted to get $1,812 minus your $100 profit which is $1,712. The insurance cost is then $1,712 - $1,000 = $712.
That’s roughly $600 more than the cost of the insurance for the third game but as you know, if you’re placing a wager for that fourth game, it implies that the team lost the third one and you had saved $340 on that third game by reducing the amount of the wager to $1,000 instead of $1,340. So, your real cost for that fourth game is $712 minus the $340 you saved which is a $372 premium, not quite 4 games of profit.
That’s what clever money management is all about; having a formula that allows you to be very profitable by winning only 25% of the time while protecting your capital so it can still be producing profits the very next day.
This was in the case of a win in that fourth game. If you would have incurred a loss in that fourth game, as we've seen above, the total amount would have been $5,926 out of an initial capital of $7,500. The real loss (operating costs) would then be $3,512. This very clever insurance concept would have saved you $2,414.
Keep in mind that the ratio of roughly 50% of the initial working capital ($3,512/$7,500) is calculated as if this would have happened at the very start of the season with no accumulated wins. This is very unlikely to happen. In the real world, we would have had profited from many wins and the ratio of the loss in reference to the working capital at that moment would obviously be much smaller.
As we’ve mentioned, this will very rarely happen and in some occasions, bookmakers will reduce the odds more than what we’ve used in this example because of the 3 losses in a row. That would translate in either the insurance cost in the case of a win or the operating cost for a loss being much lower than in the above example where we've used what can be kind of the worst case scenario.
One last precision in reference to the fourth game wager of the above example:
We've mentioned that sometimes, bookmakers reduce the odds on a team that loses three in a row. Using the maximum wager of $1,800 for that fourth game and knowing that we wanted to recoup the $1,712 of the first three games plus ideally our per win profit of $100, we needed to earn $1,812 on that fourth game. With odds at +105 for that game, we would have had to place a wager of $1,726 for recouping the 3 games plus our per win amount, not even the maximum of 18x we're dealing with.
So, don't take the above example as the rule; that was more of a worst case extreme scenario so you could really grasp our insurance concept and understand the power of it.
You now really understand why this insurance money management twist is so powerful in protecting you against a major drawback in your working capital. This assures you that you’ll keep on making profits and not run into cash flow problems.
Note that this concept which is not used by anyone out there will save you hundreds of times the cost of this ebook.
As a side note about this whole formula, we can say there's only one problem with it and it's the time it takes every day for generating the picks using the technique we mentioned above which is looking at the recent sequence home and away and combining it with the recent record home or away (depending where the team is playing that day) together with the 4 coming games evaluation of the relative strength of all the pitching staff involved and a few other variables. This takes about 60 to 75 minutes every day. That's not much for what it can produce in profits, but still seems to be problematic for most people.
The reason we're saying that is coming from the feedback we've had asking us if we could provide a service where all of that would be done. Many people prefer paying a small amount every month for leveraging what we're already doing.
Don't take us wrong here, we're absolutely not pushing our service, we're only sharing with you what others asked us. You can do very well using everything included in this ebook, the only drawback according to the ones who prefer the small monthly fee is the time it takes to do it every day. As you've noticed, the way for recouping the money in inventory is to go with placing wagers on consecutive games which involves doing our homeworks 7 days a week.
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