The ANC is a centrist political party and they invited the Communist Party and the Trade
Union Movement in 1994 with wonderful promises to get together in the same political
bed. Often there were skirmishes between the members but then by clever foot
movement by the ANC the problems were resolved.
History repeats itself in the history of the ANC. In the middle fifties Mandela and his
youth brigade challenged the ANC leaders to change their policies to become a
resistance movement. Today we find again a resistance movement on the part of the
youth. Again, the young rebel leaders Malema and friends were kicked out by the
movement. Malema and his brigade formed a political party (Economic Freedom
Fighters) and positioned them to the left of the ANC. Their policies and promises to the
electorate (especially the youth and the unemployed masses) reminds one, of the
same promises made by the ANC in 1994 .It included the confiscating of the farms of
white farmers, banks and the nationalization of the mines in order to divide the wealth
of the country and to provide employment to all the people.
The masses swallowed these promises in large numbers during the elections of 2014
and the Economic Freedom Fighters won 6% of the votes cast, on them with a resultant
29 representatives in parliament.
Apart from this problem for the ANC, another problem arose. Numsa, who is the biggest
member of Cosatu decided not to support the ANC during the 2014 elections. Here to,
we expect a break to the left and probably a future coalition between the youth and the
trade unions on the left of the ANC.
President Zama recently commented as follow "Disposable income per capita, of
households Increased by 43% over the last 19 years and total employment has
increased by more than 3.5 million since 1994. The ANC alliance partner Cosatu, gave
some indication as why the nation is restless. It is true to say that the social
concessions have been to a large extent undermined by the rising cost of living and the
rising unemployment rate. This has caused some of the biggest protests with over 1.3
million workers go on strike yearly and over 40% of Municipalities witnessing service
delivery protests”
Archbishop Desmond Tutu's statement in this regard was: "They stopped the gravy train
just long enough to get on.”
Fraud and theft in the government assumed enormous proportions. One of the largest
of these is the R246 million that was spent to upgrade Zuma's home at Nkandla under
the pretext that it was done to protect him.
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I recently read a great truth that says: "If the ministers and officials who have their noses
in the trough could look up to the horizon they would see enemy of their own making
gathering there. As far as political vulnerability goes, in a society where voters are
impoverished and frustrated, the government might as well paint a bull’s eye on their
collective forehead. The failure of the social accord, the rise of populism and the
tarnishing of the government’s image are not the only reason why a new political force
will rise to the left of the ANC, but they are decisive”
Unlike the old ANC which was a group of black people, we find that the Communist
Party was open to all races. A group of white people who felt at home in the communist
party led this group. People who campaigned for a non-racial political dispensation have
also joined this party. It is also true that many of these members do not really realize
what communism has as its goal. The creed of freedom, equality and fraternity have
dominated and blinded them for the real goals. Of the best thinkers were members of
the party and played a major role at the codesa negotiations. However, the party was
small and although they took the lead during the negotiations for the new constitution for
South Africa, they had to content with the crumbs that fell from the ANC's table over the
past twenty years.
As the political reign of the ANC comes to a close these same people will again play a
key role in the downfall of the current regime, as they are convinced of the "raw deal"
they got.
The SACP and Cosatu will not easily break away from the 3-party alliance. There will be
many fights this year on privatization, economic policy, and housing as well as the
candidates for certain jobs. The announcement of the thirty-five ministers as well as the
thirty-six deputy ministers for the next five years, confirmed my suspicion. It is my
opinion that these are the aspects that will lead to the establishment of a labor party.
The union members feel that the government do not have their interests at heart, while
the youth who have a serious unemployment crisis belief that Malema's ideology is a
better solution for their problems Add to this the SACP's free-thinkers, and here you'll
find the perfect brotherhood for a labor party. This time with the Communist Party as the
dominant group. The big problem with this new party, however, will be that the focus will
be moved away completely from wealth creation to wealth distribution. It's these vague
promises and rhetoric that will convince the masses to break away from the ANC. Could
it is that Winnie Mandela might be the leader of this new party? She is very quiet lately.
Meanwhile, the quiet dynamics of change continues which includes an accelerating
population growth, urbanization, unemployment and crime. Everything plays a role in
destabilizing a community and lead to unrest.
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An early symptom of the decline of the ANC’s popularity is the disappearance of the
existing leaders who are replaced by Zuma with his faithful personal friends. During his
leadership, we already experienced four cabinet changes; the previous one was the
biggest. As expected, Pravin Gordan, finance minister, was replaced by the first black
minister of finance. . Significantly is the fact that 40% of the cabinet members are
members of the SACP.
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Chapter 6: The Water Tread Economic Phase
As a result of the Government’s policy to focus mainly on the political aspects of the
country, we find that very little attention is given to the economy of SA. Economic
growth is based on investments, productivity, constructive labor relations, good and
positive government policies as well as a free market.
The past few years have been marked by a sharp decline in investment, both by local
and foreign investors. Currently we find that South African investors invest their surplus
funds into shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange .It can be quickly converted
into cash if it becomes necessary to send it out of the country. The underlying reasons
for this are the current labor law, the struggle in the labor movement, strikes, threats of
nationalization etc.
The interference of the government in the affairs and decisions of enterprises (see the
staff reduction at Amplats regarding the retrenchment of 14,000 workers in order to
restore profitability) create further uncertainty among investors. The unprecedented
strike of more than five months at the Rustenburg Platinum mines indicates that the
trade union movement would rather see the closure of the mines than to a compromise.
They do not want to drop their unrealistic demands of a minimum wage of R12500 as a
starting wage the result has been losses of hundreds of billions of rands for workers,
employers and the treasury. I just wonder whether it is not the first step to force the
mining industry to its knees with a view of taking over the mines by the State.
This abnormal wage demands is not only in the mining industry, but also in other
sectors where employees including the civil service demand unaffordable wages. If the
workers (read union) do not get their own they embark on strikes with associated losses
and damage to the economy.
A further result is that companies move away from labor and replace it by
mechanization. Even agriculture, where large numbers of permanent and seasonal
workers are employed, farmers are forced to mechanize and replacing workers with
machines. The claims by the workers and the government's minimum wage legislation,
forced farmers to walk this path. Not only do we find an increase in unemployment in
the country, but also an emigration from the farms to the cities and a resulting increase
in social demands and problems.
Foreign financial assistance from various countries were great after the new
government took power in 1994.These assistance programs played an important role,
in that extra buying power became available with the resulting economic growth. As the
political climate changed in South Africa, the government changed it friends to Russia,
China and African countries in place of Europe and America, The latter were big donor
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friends of SA. This resulted in a sharp decline in donations from them. Instead of
receiving donations, we make huge donations to Cuba, Zimbabwe, Swaziland and
many other countries. South Africa choked already in its foreign debt, and cannot
balance its books, but we give generously to the foreign friends while our own people
suffer.
The government believes that job creation is needed to stimulate the economy. This is
true. However, it is the way they do it that creates problems. The last few years we saw
a tremendous increase in staff numbers in the public sector (national, provincial and
local government). In addition to the increase in the numbers (one in four people who
work, work for the state), the salaries of civil servants increased remarkably. It is
practice in First World countries that wages in the private sector are higher than the
public sector. In SA it is not the case. A further problem is that the public sector is a
service sector, and not a production sector.
We are moving strongly in the direction of a Zimbabwe or a Mozambique. Zimbabwe
has sought to grow its economy in the same way, and it resulted in a runaway inflation
The exchange rate of the Zimdollar increased to 1000% + . In Mozambique, the
economy reached such a low point that there was hardly an economy. Today
Mozambican workers will do any job for any amount of money, in order to earn money
to buy food.
At this stage it is also necessary to look further to the calls of nationalization. The
National Party of the previous regime was the leader to place assets in the hands of the
State. Refer to Eskom, South African Railways, Telkom, and Sasol etc. Already during
the reign of the National Party, government was forced to privatize some of these
assets (see Sasol) in order to generate funds for the state. The ANC is today the
managers of these state assets and public corporations. Sorry to say but they do a very
poor job, and huge subsidies must be transferred annually from the budget to
compensate for the losses. If they were profitable they could generate revenue for the
State.
Today it is generally accepted that 50% of the country's assets belong to the State. An
American analyst has estimated that it amounts to R248 billion. The government could
sell these assets to the private sector and secure enough funds to repay its public debt
and still have enough for job creation. It is true that unemployment may increase as a
result of privatization, but then the state does not need more tax money for subsidies to
these enterprises, and collect taxes from these privatized institutions instead.
The dilemma of the ANC, however, is that their partners' policy is aimed at
nationalization and thus more government control and less in the hands of the private
sector.
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Some state institutions such as Eskom, Telkom, Railways, SABC and the Airports are of
strategic importance and therefore should rather stay under control of the state. Other
groups that are less strategic for example Armskor, Denel, SAA, and Soekor and
Mosgas can easily be privatized. Then, there are holiday resorts and parcel delivery
services that definitely do not belong here.
The attempt by the ANC to sell a minority share of the Post Office Company to the
disadvantaged people at a huge subsidy per share did not result in profits for the State.
The management control remained in the hands of the State.
The Policy charter of the ANC that was issued ahead of the 2014 elections promised
that six million jobs will be created over the next five years. The voters were also
promised that the government will build a million homes. To satisfy the left wing and the
EFF supporters they also promised that urgent attention will be given to nationalization
in the next few years.
As expected, Julius Malema did not wait to respond and it was reported as follows in
the press. ”Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema praised Zimbabwe
president Robert Mugabe on Thursday and said that the only systems for Africans was
the Zimbabwean system. Speaking at a media briefing in Braamfontein, Malema was
full of praise for Mugabe, particularly the Zimbabwean president’s land expropriation
policy. There is no system that has worked successfully for Africans, except the
Zimbabwean system. The Zimbabweans today can be hungry and poor, but at least
they own property. You are eating pap and vleis here in South-Africa, but you have
nothing to show as proof that you belong to South Africa. "
"The EFF's stance on land expropriation without compensation has been widely
critiqued but according to a report in Eyewitness News, Malema said white people had
been compensated enough since 1994. The 20 years of not taking the land should have
been regarded as compensation because the land should have been taken in 1994. So
we have compensated them enough”
It's not only the comments of the ANC and EFF, but also the labor movement who bend
the rules until it breaks. The implosion of Cosatu on a wide front, wider than the mining
industry as well as the backlash of the members of the unions at their own organization
and the backlash from employers create a bleak picture. Collective bargaining may fall
along the way.
Warnings about South Africa's "hostile" labor relations were raised long before the mine
strikes in 2012, the Marikana massacre or the current stalemate at the platinum mines
in Rustenburg. Four people have been killed during the past week (May 2014) but it
does not come close to the violence of the security strike in 2006 in which some 60
people who no longer wanted to strike, were killed.
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Currently, the court case of the Free Market Foundation against the bargaining council
system who determines wages in most manufacturing industries, in the constitutional
court, is still pending. If successful, it could undermine the important setting in which
unions rely on to make equal wages for certain sectors. In the bargaining system
employers' longstanding request is for a dual labor agreement.
The apparent disintegration of Cosatu also opens the door for new union rivalry.The
establishment and growth of AMCU is a prime example..
According to media reports, employers in the metal and engineering sector will this year
come with radical claims against their 290000 workers to the table. Employers will
demand a reduction in wages. This step by the employers was preceded by the unions'
demands that the minimum wage should be established between R5300 and R9713 per
month plus benefits and allowances which will increase the wage package from R7400
to R13600.
The claims reflect claims that have failed in the clothing industry and led to the down fall
of the industry. In 2011, the South African Clothing and Textile workers agreed that new
workers receive between 20% and 30% lower wages in exchange for the creation of
jobs. The irreparable damage to the industry led to thousands of job losses.
Changes are one of the hardest things to predict. It always takes longer to happen, but
once it starts, it happens often at a pace that you did not think that it’s possible.
Nowadays the newspapers and analysts predict that the current situation is
unsustainable in the country, and that this must change. Even books have been
published. One such a book is titled "The Fall of the ANC" and was written by Prince
Mashele and Dr Mzukizi Qobo. It is concluded in the book that “the ANC is an empty
shell, who is undermined from inside by corruption, abuse of power, ideological
differences and party politics”.
One of the reasons for the successful transition between 1990 and 1994 was the
presence of an advanced school of thought on what was then called "post-apartheid
South Africa." Wide and well conceived views and policies outside the political
boundaries of party politics visions and models of how South Africa can look and
function in a democratic dispensation were on the table. Options and consequences
were spelled out
As early as 1988 it was my privilege to attend several workshops with other business
leaders in SA. The topic on the table was "What if Mandela is released from jail?”
Strategic plans were discussed and implemented. Some of the members of the Jewish
community even sold their business interests and assets and left the country, while
others have made different plans. We are now at the same point again!!
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The challenge is here again, as was the case after the post apartheid regime to
consider the available options and to plan for the “after the ANC regime” We should be
careful not to make the same mistakes like the Arab world during their Arab spring
where they focused only on bringing down the existing governments but they forgot
what should come in its place.. Egypt is a good example.
Shortly before the ANC Bloemfontein congress in 2013 the Zuma clique caused
troubles with their story of a "second transition”. Undoubtedly there should be a second
transition away from the first transition in 1994 because the ANC is not up to the task!!
The current policy of the ANC focus on politics and it is expected that the economy can
support it without any constructive policy and management.
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