A FIVE MINUTE COURSE IN FOREX – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TO GET STARTED....................................................................31 TRADING AND INTERVENTION – OPTIMIZING THE MARKET......................................................................................................48
TOP FIVE ECONOMIC DRIVERS THAT SPUR FOREX TRADING....................................................................................................34 BIRD’S EYE OF THE EURO’S PERFORMANCE IN THE CURRENCY.................36 THE JAPANESE YEN STANDS UP TO THE US DOLLAR.........39Forex (foreign exchange) refers to the foreign currency exchange market, the world’s largest financial trading market. Pass yourself as a forex expert with these buzz words:
• Bid – to buy
• Ask – to sell
• Liquidity – financial ease of transaction, i.e. cash
• Trading volume – the amount traded
• Bid/ask spread – the difference between the proposed
buying price and the actual selling price
• OTC – over the counter
• Exchange rate – the difference between currency values;
• Hedge funds – large mutual funds companies that control vast amounts of money and are able to manipulate the value of a currency through speculation
• Central bank – the national bank of a nation, which usually exerts control over the value of that currency
Forex trading is the investment in the currency of one nation. Multinational Corporations doing business across national boundaries find value in keeping their cash reserves in a variety of countries, and holding their funds in a myriad of ways. For example, a UK corporation may hold a percentage of its working capital in UK pounds, but if it does quite a bit of business in USA it may also maintain a percentage of its money in dollars, in US banks. Individual investors over the decades have discovered that there is profit to be made in investment and speculation in the currency markets.
Take the case during the 70’s when the German DM swung rapidly in value. It was worth anywhere from 1.2 marks to the US dollar to 3.5 US marks to the dollar. When the mark was worth 2.5 it was beneficial to spend dollars buying marks, since the mark would buy more goods or services at that rate. As the mark bottomed out 1.7 to the dollar there was less incentive.
Surprisingly, the forex market itself is not unified. One can find many small forex markets specializing in trading various currencies. The most commonly traded currencies in forex speculation are the US dollar, the Australian dollar, the British pound sterling, the Japanese yen, and the European Euro. Currency values vary depending on the market in which an investor is speculating, so there is really no such thing as a single, unified dollar rate, but instead there are multiple dollar rates, which vary according to the market where the trade is occurring.
The major cities in which trades occur include New York, London, and Tokyo. It’s a 24 hour process. When Asian trading ends, European trading commences, and when European trading ends, then American trading opens. Naturally, when American trading ends, it is time for Asian trading to open house once more… and so on.
Currently, the most actively traded currency is the US dollar, involved in 90% of all trades. This is followed by the Euro involved in 36% of all trades, then by the yen in 20% and the pound in 17%.
Our fastest rising currency in trade is the Euro, however the US dollar is still the favored anchor point-- and the currency watched so as to judge how others will react. Differences in value of currencies come from the current events. GDP growth, inflation dips, interest rate swings, budget and trade deficits, surpluses and other economic conditions all shift currency values. Investors, for this reason, follow the news very closely. There are 24 hour cable news channels and many web sites devoted to news that aid currency speculators.
The forex market is highly susceptible to rumors. In fact the central banks of countries frequently manipulated local currency value by sowing rumors about interest rate hikes and other economic propaganda that impacts the value of the domestic currency. When this news is false it is called a dirty float- and it dismays the market.
*****Money Management Basics for Forex Traders
Money management in the foreign exchange currency market requires educating yourself in a variety of financial areas. First, a definition of the foreign exchange currency or forex market is called for. The forex market is simply the exchange of the currency of one country for the currency of another. The relative values of various currencies in the world change on a regular basis. Factors such as the stability of the economy of a country, the gross national product, the gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and such obvious factors as domestic security and foreign relations come into play. For instance, if a country has an unstable government, is expecting a military takeover, or is about to become involved in a war, then the country’s currency may go down in relative value compared to the currency of other countries.
There are five major forex exchange markets in the world, New York, London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo and Zurich. Forex trading occurs around the clock in various markets, Asian, European, and American. With different time zones, when Asian trading stops, European trading opens, and conversely when European trading stops, American trading opens, and when American trading stops, then it is time for Asian trading to begin again.
Most of the trading in the world occurs in the forex markets; smaller markets for trade in individual countries. Simply put forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another. Over $1.4 trillion dollars, US of forex trading occurs daily and sometimes fortunes are made or lost in this market. The billionaire George Soros has made most of his money in forex trading. Successfully managing your money in forex trading requires an understanding of the bid/ask spread.
Simply put the bid ask spread is the difference between the price at which something is offered for sale and the price that it is actually purchased for. For instance, if the ask price is 100 dollars, and the bid is 102 dollars then the difference is two dollars, the spread. Many forex traders trade on margin. Trading on margin is buying and selling assets that are worth more than the money in your account. Since currency exchange rates on any given day are usually less than two percent, forex trading is done with a small margin. To use an example, with a one percent margin a trader can trade up to $250,000 even if he only has $5,000 in his account. This means the trade has leverage of 50 to one. This amount of leverage allows a trader to make good profits very quickly. Of course, with the chance of high profits also comes high risk.
People who do forex trading do so because they are attracted by 24 hour trading days, by strong liquidity – unlike stocks, buying and selling is almost instantaneous – and the fact that forex trading usually occurs without paying commissions.
Like many other speculative investments, a key part of money management for the forex trader is only using money that can be put at risk. It is wise to set aside a portion of your net worth and make that the only money you use in forex trading. While the chances of good profits are there, if you should have a problem and get wiped out, you’ll only have a limited amount of money placed at risk. Also remember that the market is n constant motion. There are always trading opportunities. If a currency is becoming stronger or weaker in relation to other currencies there is always a chance for profit. For instance, if you believe that the Euro is gong to become weak compared to the US dollar then selling Euros is a good bet. If you believe that the dollar is going to become weaker than the yen, or the pound sterling, then selling dollars is wise. Staying current on the news and current events in the countries whose currency you hold is a smart move. Many people reach points where they can predict currency changes based on political or economic news in a given country. Remember though that forex trading is speculation, so be careful when managing your funds and only invest what you can afford to risk.
*****Foreign Exchange Markets – A General Overview and Structure
of the Forex Market
In the beginning countries would trade with each other using the barter system. If one nation needed lumber but had cattle, they would trade one product for another. This was pure trading. This type of economy has many limitations, but served mankind well for many centuries. However, nations quickly saw the benefit of having a system of exchange, and while some cultures used pretty rocks, or animal teeth, precious metals quickly became established methods of exchange. God and silver were the most popular. Initially gold and silver coins were used, and in fact the name of the British standard currency, the pound sterling, came from the Hasterling region where gold coins were made, and originally meant coins of the Hasterling’s. Up until World War I most nations had central banks that supported the value of their currencies and most used gold as the standard. Paper money was printed and it legally could be exchanged for gold but this did not often happen. Since it was rarely converted, some banks and some nations believed they no longer needed to keep reserves of gold in their vaults, as the US once did with Fort Knox. Inflation then occurred.
Near the end of World War II a conference known as Bretton woods had many nations reach an agreement on a reserve currency system based on the US dollar. The World Bank and other organizations agreed, and a fixed exchange rate system was reached. The value of the dollar was fixed on a certain amount of gold, and other currencies were fixed on value to the dollar. Currency trading after this however has evolved and currencies have grown in value, and gone down in value, leading to fluctuation.
Today traders take advantage of the fluctuation in value among currencies through the forex or foreign currency markets. It is quite common to see a trader who suspects that the value of the Euro will go up against the yen or the dollar and follow the old axiom of “buy low and sell high.” On of the ways this is done is through margin trading. With margin trading a trader doesn’t have to have all the money in an account that is being traded. If a trader has 10,000 and works with a one percent margin, he is able to trade $100,000 in currency. This adds great leverage to the trade and makes forex trading very attractive to many who are looking for a large and quick return on their investments. Forex traders are also attracted to the low costs associated with trading since most trades are without commission. The fact that there is a 24 hour trading cycle is also attractive to many. Traders have opportunities for large profit, but they also have risk inherent. An aggressive trader may experience profit and loss swings of up to 30% in a day. This can be 30% to the good, or to the bad, so forex trading requires education and courage as well as capital. However there are no daily limits and no restrictions on trading hours other than the weekend when markets are closed. For this reason there are always opportunities. Money will always be made.
Much of the forex trading that occurs however is not with individual investors or speculators. Many commercial organizations have currency exposures that are created due to import and export activities. This is reason enough for many to engage in forex trading. However, financial institutions remain the biggest players in the forex market. Banks, brokers, mutual funds and other major financial institutions are actively involved in forex trading.
Some nations in the past have complained about hedge funds and other large institutions involved in forex trading, saying that they have intentionally devalued their currencies to make quick profits. George Soros, the famous billionaire who is involved in politics, has been accused of this practice by the government of Indonesia. Whether it is true or not, and if true whether it should or should not be done is not for this article. However, when institutions control such large amounts of money, the chance of manipulation does exist. As long as foreign currency is traded, there will be such accusations. However, the forex market remains a way to achieve substantial financial gain.
*****Earn Thousands Hourly (with a Forex Simulator.)
Test-driving an online forex demo account is the preferred method of potential traders to minimize risk. A demo account readily allows a cautious person to go online and observe exactly how a paid account would work. Think of it like playing the popular wargame Command and Conquer: you send in the troops (gobs of fictitious money), make a few tactical maneuvers (invest in speculative exchanges) and conquer territories (reap profit).
It can be addictive. Without investing and risking any real money, the investor plays with ghost money in an account and initiates buys and sells the same way it would be done in reality. The software used for these demo accounts parallels what the real trading platform does. Real figures are pulled from exchanges, trend charts are generated, and profits are calculated from buy/sell maneuvers., A trader sees at the end of the day the net loss or gain should real money had been used in the transactions.
Even a novice can trade. Let’s assume an investor pretends to open a margin account with ten thousand dollars. He watches trends in the currency markets and believes that the dollar will go up in value against the British pound. The demo software empowers him to purchase at a ten to one margin; he then authorizes a buy of one hundred thousand dollars of dollars and sells one hundred thousand dollars of Pounds. There will be a spread, or difference, which accumulates to the gains, or “profit”.
Why invest time with demo accounts? Simple. It’s safe to learn the currency trade without having real money to lose.Think of it like crashing your car in driving simulators or doing crazy rolls in an F-14 - on a Playstation. You stretch your creativity, test your reflexes and build your skills all behind the safety of a highly immersive computer screen. Your mind gets a full reflex workout without incurring damage to property and incurring lawsuits!
The same holds true for forex trading. Spending time with a demo account allows the potential trader to gain skills and learn the ins and outs of the game and the market place. A person is then able to see if they truly have the instincts necessary for the market and have sufficient knowledge to “play with the big boys.”
Almost all online companies involved in forex trading offer demo accounts, sometimes free and sometimes for a small fee. Even if a fee is paid, it is usually worth it because a forex trader can flex his skills and knowledge for vast profits after spending some time practicing with the forex demo software.
Setting up a demo account requires nothing more than a valid email address and your name. Upon activation, you will have access to the usual charts, graphs, ordering system and even prediction tools. The latter are quite interesting, particularly predictive implements based on Fibonnacci… but take care that such tools can never predict swings in the market. Too many social, political and environmental variables cause erratic fluctuations and no software can ever take those into consideration.
Richard Peyton, my good friend, benefited from a forex demo account. After months of study of the forex market, Jackson was convinced that he could make a go of it as a day trader in the forex market. His girlfriend, however wasn’t convinced and feared the inherent risk. She considered forex nothing more than sophisticated gambling.
Richard went to a brokerage company online that he felt held good reputation. He set up a demo forex account and began to make trades as though he were using real money. After several days, on paper, Richard garnered consistent profit. He continued learning and his confidence increased that he grew anxious to open a real forex account and invest a percentage of disposable income. His girlfriend also saw how on paper he had made a nice profit and relaxed, withdrew her objections.
Today Richard and his family do very well financially through forex trading, With a demo account, he leapt into a world of vast financial potential and built a fortune. He retired his day job.
*****Eight Key Aspects in Selecting Your Forex Broker
As you decide upon a forex broker there are many factors to take into account.
• Trust
• Experience
• References from past clients
• Level of success
• Amount of advice to be given
• Convenience
• Amount of margin offered
• Speed
The aforementioned are important. In any financial transaction it is important to trust the broker you work with. This trust is garnered by the experience level the broker has. Of course there are some new brokers starting out who are quite trustworthy, but most people would rather work with an experienced broker. For that reason most new brokers attach themselves to a firm where they can be mentored and gain experience.
References from previous clients are vital. If your broker has helped someone else is successful in the past and that person is willing to speak up for him that says a lot. You can gage the level of success your broker has had by speaking with past clients and seeing how well they did working with this broker. Next, take a look at the amount of advice your broker is willing to give you. Of course, you make your own decisions and will never take another person’s word for everything, but it is good to have knowledge to work with, and advice from an experienced broker is key information to factor in. Convenience is also impotent. If you live in California then an Ohio broker might not be the best choice. But in the age of the internet that factor has become less relevant. With fax and email where you and your broker live has become less important.
Pay attention to the margin offered. Margin is used to leverage your money. A broker who gives you a 50 to one margin is more valuable than one who gives you 20 to one. And of course speed. Is your broker quick? Does he return phone calls and emails promptly? If so, perhaps you can work with him.
Remember that the broker serves as a trusted advisor and someone that you may be working with for years to come so choose the relationship carefully. Ask friends and acquaintances who are active in forex trading what broker they use and how they met. It is quite possible that you can get a referral from a friend or acquaintance you trust and acquire a good forex broker that way.
An alternative method to find a forex broker is to go online. There are message forums, chat rooms, and email groups through portals like Yahoo, Google and MSN that contain a wealth of information. Getting onto one of these online communities and asking other people for advice is the way that many people found their broker. If a broker has several clients in an online community who are happy with what he has accomplished for them, then that is a good indication that you might be happy with him as well. Take advantage of the number of people who are on the internet and join some of these online communities. Ask question and you’ll probably learn a great deal from the experiences that other people have had. Also find trade journals, magazines and ezines to subscribe to. Read as much as you can about the subject of forex trading before going into it. Become a smart shopper and smarter trader.
Locating a superb forex broker is a job in itself. When you visit with a forex broker you are in essence conducting an employment interview to determine if this is the broker you wish to handle your financial affairs, so be thorough. Ask plenty of questions. Ask for references. Don’t be shy. Also check with other people in the office of the broker and see if you would trust them to fill in for your broker if he were not available. And, see if the broker is willing to offer you a demo account to use to get in some practice before you actually make an investment. If the broker is able to do so and encourages you then it means that the broker wants educated clients and is not just out for the quick buck. See what kind of training and tutoring the broker is willing to offer. A good broker will offer to answer your questions and help you through the learning process.
*****Winning strategies with Forex Charts
As you read forex charts, remember that the two fundamental approaches for online forex trading: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis doesn’t rely on forex charts. It scrutinizes political and economic indicators to determine trades. Charts here are deployed as used as a secondary reference.
Technical analysis on the other hand, attempts to predict price swings by analysis of historical price activity. Those who use technical analysis study the relationship between price and time.
The most actively traded pair of currencies is the Euro and the US dollar, so we will use them in our example. The dollar is on the right hand side of the chart and the Euro is on the left hand side. The currencies are expressed in relationship to each other in pairing. Forex charges will always display how much of the currency on the right hand side is necessary to buy a unit of the currency on the left side. Looking at the typical EU-USD, chart you will notice the last price displayed per given date. This number is always emphasized. The time is tabbed horizontally across the bottom of a chart and the price scale is displayed vertically along the right hand edge of the chart. The time and the price are set in all caps to help the trader remember that technical analysis rests upon the relationship between time and price.
The trader observes the price and time movement on a chart. These include bars, lines, point and figure, and Japanese candle sticks-- the most favored method. With the candlestick method there is a large, red section that is the body of the candlestick. Lines protrude from the top and bottom and they are the upper and lower wicks. When you look at all the candles on a chart it is apparent that bodies come by difference sizes. Sometimes no body exists at all.
The same is true with wicks. Candle wicks come by many difference sizes; there may be no wick at all. The length of the body and the length of the wick are determined by the price range for the candle. Longer candles will have had more price movement during the time that they were open. The top of a candle wick is the highest price for that currency while the wick’s bottom is the lowest price. A currency is bullish when the close of the candle is higher than the open. In simple terms this means that there were more buyers than there were sales during the opening time period. Sometimes the candles will not have wicks. The price opened and it dropped off until it closed.
Forex charts don’t offer bullet proof trading hints, but they can help a trader. Past trends do have their place in forex trading as most traders will admit, and using the charts to track historical trends can assist a trader in making a snap decision.
The online investor typically joins a service that provides realtime charts that updates on currency activity. Charts can be checked on a minute to minute basis. For those who primarily do their trading based on historical accuracy this can ease the burden of prediction.
Most forex traders however use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. They may chart historical trends, but they will also pay close attention to political, cultural and economic indicators within a region. They might use charts and other techniques to check correlation between political climate and currency fluctuations. But even the most sophisticated technical analysis software or tool has its limitations. A trader must be prepared to take risks… and invest money that is not needed for the immediate future.
*****Vital Tactics to Minimize whopping Forex Losses
Forex trading has one goal: to make money. Remember, that like any speculative venture, there is a potential for loosing money. The same holds true with the stock market the commodities market, and the money market. Any investment that has a chance of great gain poses a certain level of risk. As a forex trader you want to minimize your chance of risk. Observe the following Best Practices:
• Stay informed. Peruse the current events magazines and political journals. Know how the global political and social landscapes. Have been shifting
• Brush up on economics. A college refresher course can keep you out of the red. Journals by economists like John Maynard Keyes, Kenneth Galbraith and Walter Williams can help you guesstimate potential forex uptrends.
• Read periodicals like the Asian Wall Street Journal and Business Investors Daily.
• Fire up a practice demo account and get a feel of the game before jumping into the market.
• Befriend a broker you trust.
• Cultivate friendships with other traders into active trading.
• Understand historical trends and their impact on the charts.
• Take a short course on forex trading to get your skills up to speed. These cost under $200 and can help you avoid $20000
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